Elsa's track shifts slightly west, meaning more rain, tornado threat in forecast for the Triangle

By WRAL Severe Weather Center

Our main event this week – the remnants of Tropical Storm Elsa – will likely to bring rain and wind to the Triangle on Thursday.

On Tuesday at 5 a.m., the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) showed the storm had maximum sustained winds of around 60 mph – an increase from Monday’s winds when the system made landfall in Cuba. The latest projected forecast path from the NHC shifted slightly to the west across North Carolina. Elsa was moving north/northwest at 12 mph.

Elsa weakened as it moved over Cuba, but the hurricane center is expecting it to intensify again over open water in the Gulf of Mexico.

Many of the computer models have the system making landfall again in the “big bend” area of Florida on Wednesday morning and then going into Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Maximum sustained winds are expected to reach 70 mph before landfall. Elsa will pick up pace and weaken as it moves further onto land.

The WRAL Severe Weather team is watching closely to determine the storm’s trajectory. Each forecast path update brings more clarity on the timing and impact of the storm in North Carolina.

The forecast cone shows the storm could cross North Carolina anywhere from the Triad to the coast. Expect any rain to begin late Wednesday and last into Thursday afternoon. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely what we’ll see in the Triangle.

“We could have some wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour and perhaps some isolated tornadoes as well,” said WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth.

“The track of Elsa is farther west now, with the center of the tropical depression moving over us on Thursday,” said WRAL meteorologist Mike Maze. “On this track we have a greater risk for isolated tornadoes and rainfall.”

Tropical Storm watches and warnings were issued along Florida’s west coast Monday. Tornado Warnings were issued in Florida early Tuesday. Tropical storm watches are issued for the coast of South Carolina.

The storm would likely move away from North Carolina by Thursday night.

Maze added that the spaghetti model plots are now showing a more general consensus that the storm will head in the current forecasted direction.